Research Proposal Steps
Research Idea
Southwest China mainly includes the Sichuan Basin, Yunnan Guizhou Plateau, the south of Qinghai Tibet Plateau and the west of Guangdong and Guangxi hills. The complex topography has always restricted the traffic development in Southwest China. Some poor areas are too remote or even isolated from the world because of their geographical location, and the blocked traffic can not meet the needs of economic development and production activities in Southwest China. Therefore, most of the investment funds and advanced technologies are concentrated in the eastern region where the transportation is convenient and the infrastructure is perfect. The communication between the southwest region and the outside world is difficult, and it is difficult to introduce funds and technologies, which widens the gap between the southwest region and the eastern region.
By analyzing the geographical location and natural environment of the population distribution in the poverty-stricken areas in Southwest China, we can find that most of the poverty-stricken counties in Southwest China are located in areas with poor natural environment, and the population growth rate in these areas is often at a high level. Population growth is too fast, coupled with the backward infrastructure, often at the expense of the environment to obtain economic development, the contradiction between man and nature is serious, these areas are very easy to fall into the ecological environment and poverty cycle.
Based on the panel data of five provinces and autonomous regions in Southwest China from 2000 to 2016, this paper constructs a pvar model to study the dynamic relationship between tourism industry investment, economic development and industrial structure optimization in Southwest China. It is found that there is a close relationship between tourism industry investment, economic development and industrial structure optimization in Southwest China during the observation period. According to GMM estimation results, there is a mutual promotion relationship among the three in this period. From impulse response and variance decomposition, we can see that tourism industry investment mainly depends on its own industrial progress, and its impact on industrial structure optimization and economic development is at a low level. Although the impact of economic development and industrial structure optimization mainly comes from its own industrial fluctuations, the interaction between economic development and industrial structure optimization shows a rapid and stable growth trend.
Novel Hypothesis
First of all, we are going to conduct the GMM method in order to test the efficiency of Inclusive Finance. Taking 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China as samples, this paper examines the impact of Inclusive Finance on poverty and income inequality. This paper argues that the relationship among Inclusive Finance, income distribution and poverty is not one-way, and there may be reverse causality. For example, when poverty alleviation leads to an increase in demand for banking services, or when economic growth leads to a significant decrease in income inequality, this will lead to an increase in economic demand pressure for more inclusive financial policies. This endogeneity will lead to the potential deviation of the estimated coefficients. In order to overcome this potential deviation.
Then, interpret the PVAR method. Among the control variables, the lag term of income inequality (lag term) is the most important. The sign of equality is not consistent, positive and negative, but not significant. The enrollment rate is consistent . A higher enrollment rate in secondary schools will restrain the widening of the income gap. The coefficient of the proportion of import and export in GDP (openness) is negative, but not significant. Inflation rate has significantly increased the degree of income inequality. The possible reason for inflation to widen the gap between the rich and the poor is that the investment decisions of the rich and the poor are different. When inflation occurs, their real wealth will be further enlarged. In the GM model, GDP per capita is significantly positive, which indicates that the increase of general per capita income will reduce the further widening of income inequality. The relevant data are from the statistical yearbook, statistical bulletin of national economic and social development, government work report and China Tourism Statistical Yearbook of the provinces in Southwest China. For missing and abnormal values, multiple interpolation methods and regression interpolation methods are adopted to improve the data.
Details Research Plan
The existing literature mainly uses the dynamic panel model to study the long-term growth problem, and uses the dynamic fixed effect model to deal with the possible endogenous factors caused by this missing variable. Also, in order to build a PVAR model, the optimal lag order should be selected firstly. If the lag order is too short, the credibility of modeling results is low; If the lag order is too long, the degree of freedom will be reduced and part of the sample data will be lost.
Through the empirical study on the relationship between tourism industry investment, economic development and industrial structure optimization in Southwest China, the following conclusions are drawn: Granger causality test shows that there is a close relationship among the three; The generalized matrix (GMM) estimation of pvar model shows that there is a positive promoting relationship among them; Impulse response and variance decomposition show that the impact of economic development and industrial structure optimization on tourism industry investment is not only lagging in the short term, but also very weak. Tourism industry investment mainly depends on its own influence. The overall impact of tourism industry investment on economic development and industrial structure optimization is small, but the interaction between economic development and industrial structure optimization shows a stable growth trend. Based on the above analysis, the following suggestions are put forward.
The first is to broaden the channels of tourism investment and absorb tourism investment in many aspects. The government should adopt the development model of cooperation with social capital, increase the investment in the tourism industry, and promote social capital investment. Social capital investment is more benefit driven than government investment. Once it generates considerable economic benefits, it will attract more capital into the tourism industry and inject more powerful power into the development of the tourism industry.
Second, optimize the distribution structure of tourism investment and improve the efficiency of tourism investment. In the new era of tourism capital driven development, tourism investment is of great significance for the development of the tourism industry, and the development of the tourism industry can promote economic growth and industrial structure optimization. Therefore, according to theory, tourism industry investment should become a positive force for economic development and industrial structure optimization, The tourism industry investment in Southwest China has little effect on economic development and industrial structure optimization, and the theoretical results do not appear. It shows that the investment efficiency of the tourism industry in Southwest China is low, that is, the efficiency of transforming tourism investment into economic benefits is low. Therefore, it needs the government to give full play to its subjective initiative, allocate all kinds of social investment and government investment more reasonably, integrate the tourism industry with low investment efficiency, and improve the efficiency of tourism investment.
Third, accelerate the development of the tertiary industry and promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure. From the analysis results, we can see that there is not only a significant Granger causality between structural optimization and economic development, but also a significant positive impact between the two, which shows an increasing trend, that is, industrial structure optimization can promote economic development, and economic development is also conducive to industrial structure optimization. Therefore, the government should focus on the development of the tertiary industry, promote the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure, so as to stimulate the vitality of economic development, and finally form a good situation of mutual promotion and coordinated development of industrial structure optimization and economic development.
Budget
The design of this study is supported by similar studies on poverty in China a few years ago, so this research plan is very practical. We can observe poverty alleviation by monitoring the local economic situation and the development brought by tourism in real time, so this research is very necessary. As for $100000, I am considering allocating the research budget for this year in the following way. About 20% - 30% of the funds will be used to pay for the living expenses of researchers (including travel expenses to and from different areas in Southwest China for Research). Researchers need a good learning environment, which is equipped with hardware facilities, including computers and other devices to help modeling and data analysis; That’s about $50000. About $10000 will be paid to local network providers and other organizations to obtain information. We also need to spend about $10000 to hire reliable staff to collect data related to wetlands and swamps in corresponding African regions, which may not be directly obtained from satellite data. Another 10% of the budget will be used to organize and publish research results, and then communicate with local officials to formulate and implement countermeasures.
Conclusion
Optimize the distribution structure of tourism investment and improve the efficiency of tourism investment. In the new era of tourism capital driven development, tourism investment is of great significance for the development of the tourism industry, and the development of the tourism industry can promote economic growth and industrial structure optimization. Therefore, according to theory, tourism industry investment should become a positive force for economic development and industrial structure optimization. However, from the analysis results, it can be seen that tourism industry investment in Southwest China has great influence on economic development and industrial structure optimization The promotion effect of industrial structure optimization is small, and the theoretical results do not appear. It shows that the investment efficiency of the tourism industry in Southwest China is low, that is, the efficiency of transforming tourism investment into economic benefits is low. Therefore, it needs the government to give full play to its subjective initiative, allocate all kinds of social investment and government investment more reasonably, integrate the tourism industry with low investment efficiency, and improve the efficiency of tourism investment.